Analysis of statewide enrollment trends released ahead of Texas House Public Education Committee hearing
AUSTIN, TX, UNITED STATES, May 11, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — Texas public schools lost more than 76,000 students during the 2025–26 school year, marking the second-largest single-year enrollment decline in modern state history and largest outside the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report released Monday by Texas 2036.
The report, “Texas Public School Enrollment Trends,” comes as the Texas House Public Education Committee prepares to examine enrollment trends and the long-term stability of the state’s school finance system during a May 11 interim hearing.
The analysis finds that the decline is not isolated to one region or student group, but instead reflects a broader structural shift reshaping Texas public education.
Among the report’s findings:
* Texas lost approximately 76,000 public school students in a single year, the first non-pandemic enrollment decline in nearly four decades. Hispanic students accounted for roughly four out of five students lost statewide.
* Nearly 60 percent of the current enrollment loss occurred in grades K–5, but middle schools in Texas have lost students four out of the last five years.
* Based on demographic trends, Texas 2036 projects Texas could have approximately 100,000 fewer K–12 public school students by 2030.
* Enrollment declines were widespread across Texas. Eighteen of 20 Education Service Center regions lost students, with some of the sharpest declines occurring in the Rio Grande Valley, Amarillo and Midland regions.
* The share of Texas school-age children enrolled in public schools has fallen by roughly 3.5 percentage points over the last decade, suggesting the decline reflects more than lower birth rates alone.
“This report raises important questions about how Texas plans for public education amid major demographic and enrollment change,” said Mary Lynn Pruneda, director of education and workforce policy at Texas 2036. “School enrollment drives everything from funding and staffing to facilities and long-term planning for Texas’ future workforce.”
The report finds enrollment declines are concentrated in the earlier grades, suggesting the trend is likely to move through middle and high schools over the next decade. Researchers also found Texas public schools are losing market share among school-age Texans even as the state’s total population continues to grow.
“What stands out in the data is that public school enrollment is falling even as Texas continues to grow,” said Carlo Castillo, senior research analyst at Texas 2036. “In many parts of the state, population gains are no longer translating into public school enrollment growth. That points to a broader structural shift policymakers and district leaders will need to plan for.”
The report also documents continued enrollment redistribution across district types. Over the last decade, major urban school districts have steadily contracted while charter schools and many rural districts have expanded their share of enrollment.
The full report is available at www.texas2036.org/k12-enrollment
###
About Texas 2036
Texas 2036 is a nonpartisan public policy organization dedicated to improving lives and opportunities for all Texans through 2036, Texas’ bicentennial year, and beyond.
Media Contacts:
Merrill Davis, Vice President of Communications: 713-213-7297
Email: media@texas2036.org
Merrill Davis
Texas 2036
+1 713-213-7297
email us here
Legal Disclaimer:
EIN Presswire provides this news content “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability
for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this
article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.
Media gallery
