Confidence recovered into positive territory as business risks eased

NEW YORK, Aug. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council rose to 52 in Q3 2026, up from 47 in Q2. Despite a partial rebound from last quarter’s sharp drop, confidence among leaders of large firms remained well below the level of 59 recorded in Q1 2026. (A reading above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses). A total of 136 CEOs participated in the Q3 survey, which was fielded from July 13 through 27. 

“CEO confidence revived somewhat in Q3 2026, potentially reflecting some easing in oil prices and geopolitical tensions,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The reading suggests cautious optimism among leaders of large US firms. CEOs’ assessments of current economic conditions recovered after plummeting in Q2 but remained slightly negative at a reading of 49. Meanwhile, expectations for economic conditions six months from now improved into slightly positive territory. Regarding their own industries, CEOs’ views of current conditions and expectations six months hence improved in Q3 and were more optimistic than their views of the overall economy.” 

“Cyber (63%) remained CEOs’ top concern among business risks impacting their industry,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board. “Notably, AI and new technology (58%) overtook geopolitics as CEOs’ second highest business risk. Concerns related to geopolitics and energy eased substantially after surging last quarter: In Q3, 53% of CEOs ranked geopolitical and 25% ranked energy supply as high-impact risks, down sharply from 62% and 34%, respectively, in Q2.”

Ferguson added: “CEOs expected to stay the course on their capital spending plans, with most (61%) indicating no plans to revise capital spending, and only 8% expecting to revise plans lower (unchanged from Q2). Regarding employment, CEOs remained in ‘low-hire, low-fire’ mode, but tilted toward a slight expansion in their workforces in Q3. Plans for wage increases were overall little changed. Hiring qualified people was generally unproblematic in Q3, with a majority of CEOs (61%) expecting either no problem hiring (13%) or overall no problem but some problems in some areas (48%) over the next 12 months.”

Current Conditions
CEOs’ assessment of general economic conditions improved in Q3 2026:

• 23% of CEOs said economic conditions were better than six months ago, up from 15% in Q2 2026.
• 26% said economic conditions were worse, down significantly from 47%.

CEOs’ assessments of conditions in their own industries also improved in Q3:

• 43% of CEOs said conditions in their own industries were better than six months ago, up from 33% in Q2.
• 23% said conditions in their own industries were worse, down from 33%.

Future Conditions
CEOs’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook became slightly positive in Q3 2026 after falling into negative territory last quarter:

• 25% of CEOs expected economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 24% in Q2 2026.
• 19% expected economic conditions to worsen, down significantly from 40%.

Overall, CEOs’ expectations for short-term prospects in their own industries improved in Q3:

• 36% of CEOs expected conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months, down slightly from 38%.
• However, 13% expected conditions in their own industry to worsen over the next six months, down from 22%.

Employment, Recruiting, Wages, and Capital Spending

• Employment: 34% of CEOs expected to expand their workforce, up from 28% in Q2 2026. This was higher than the share expecting to reduce their workforce (28%, down from 31%). 37% of CEOs anticipated no change in their workforce.
• Hiring Qualified People: A majority of CEOs (61%) expected either no problem hiring (13%) or overall no problem but some problems in some areas (48%) over the next 12 months.
• Wages: Most CEOs (58%) continued to plan annual wage hikes concentrated in the 3–3.9% range.
• Capital Spending: Most CEOs (61%) indicated no plans to revise capital spending. The share of CEOs expecting to increase capital spending eased after several quarters of gains—to 31% in Q3 2026 from 37% in Q2. Meanwhile, only 8% of CEOs expected to revise spending plans downward.

About The Conference Board 
The Conference Board is the Member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org l Learn about Membership

About The Business Council
The Business Council is a forum for the CEOs of the world’s largest multinational corporations across all industry sectors. Members gather several times each year to share best practices, network and engage in intellectually provocative, enlightening discussions with peers and thought-leaders in business, government, academia, science, technology and other disciplines. Through the medium of discussion, the Council seeks to foster greater understanding of the major opportunities and challenges facing business, and to create consensus for solutions. The Business Council is a nonpartisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (6) tax-exempt status. The Business Council does not lobby. Visit The Business Council’s website at www.thebusinesscouncil.org

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SOURCE The Conference Board